I’m just starting some prep for the 2021 fantasy baseball season. In doing so, I began looking around the Web to see what others have written about prepping. I came across this article by Paul Ghiglieri over at FantasyPros on when to target pitchers.

For those that don’t know me, I enjoy the 50-round draft-and-hold leagues. I don’t swim with the sharks over at NFBC, but instead, I can be found drafting on Fantrax either in my home leagues ($25 entry) or the $50 leagues Fantrax runs. So, my definition of pitcher targets expands up to 750 players deep.

I appreciated the concept of the Five Points Pitcher. Nothing too earth shattering, but it attempts to identify pitcher targets based on underlying metrics that the average fantasy baseball fan may not be keying on. In other words, maybe helpful in identifying undervalued pitchers.

I encourage you to go read Paul’s work, but the five points are:

• High K/9 rates (though I tend to like K% more)
• Above Average GB%
• Low Hard-Hit %
• High O-Swing %
• Low Walk Rate (again, I prefer looking at BB%)

So, let’s look at those stats. I don’t fully know know what to do with the 2020 season. One podcast I listened this morning suggested looking at previous 162 games (or for pitchers, 32 starts). That seems wise, but to be honest, it was much easier to just pull 2019-2020. So, that is what we have here: Download Workbook (sorry for non Excel users).

Name	K%+	BB%+	Hard%+	O-Swing%	GB%+	Aggregate Rank
Stephen Strasburg	126	77	79	0.37	116	104
Hyun-Jin Ryu	101	47	85	0.359	117	110
Jacob deGrom	144	66	83	0.384	101	123
Noah Syndergaard	106	71	76	0.335	111	174
Chris Sale	157	71	95	0.351	101	178
Charlie Morton	129	82	90	0.336	111	187
Kenta Maeda	123	81	79	0.366	100	192
Zack Wheeler	95	68	79	0.346	108	195
Yu Darvish	134	78	88	0.338	103	199
Brandon Woodruff	128	69	93	0.329	107	209
Ryan Yarbrough	88	46	80	0.368	102	211
Gerrit Cole	166	68	96	0.351	93	213
Joe Musgrove	103	71	94	0.351	104	216
Craig Stammen	90	49	86	0.323	122	219
Shane Bieber	144	61	106	0.356	106	220
Max Scherzer	146	64	95	0.347	89	228
Zack Greinke	101	42	96	0.336	103	233
Patrick Corbin	113	89	97	0.363	110	234
Eduardo Rodriguez	109	103	76	0.339	115	240
Seth Lugo	137	62	91	0.301	104	243
Clayton Kershaw	116	61	107	0.343	114	245
Kyle Hendricks	88	44	86	0.35	100	246
Max Fried	103	81	93	0.32	123	249
Liam Hendriks	166	66	93	0.351	74	249
Masahiro Tanaka	88	59	101	0.367	110	263
Pablo Lopez	93	72	93	0.328	113	263
Luis Castillo	126	110	96	0.336	129	270
Mike Soroka	85	73	92	0.334	120	274
Dylan Bundy	106	90	85	0.348	98	282
Blake Snell	142	104	96	0.365	100	285
Jose Berrios	103	80	97	0.359	99	290
Michael Pineda	102	57	99	0.362	86	296
Carlos Carrasco	125	78	103	0.349	100	297
Luis Cessa	92	102	89	0.35	110	301
German Marquez	100	64	104	0.321	114	305
Justin Verlander	156	58	111	0.371	86	309
Tyler Glasnow	155	87	95	0.299	106	315
Dallas Keuchel	77	86	89	0.33	134	317
Michael Lorenzen	105	104	84	0.331	105	317
Walker Buehler	125	62	104	0.333	96	319
Frankie Montas	113	83	103	0.335	106	320
Scott Barlow	132	123	92	0.35	100	320
Zach Eflin	90	76	93	0.331	104	321
Aaron Nola	122	104	104	0.347	115	326
Ivan Nova	60	73	91	0.333	111	327
Corbin Burnes	142	104	101	0.336	106	328
Adrian Houser	98	93	89	0.297	128	330
Yonny Chirinos	94	64	91	0.307	100	330
Marcus Stroman	90	88	90	0.311	126	334
Yusmeiro Petit	97	44	90	0.332	72	335
Miles Mikolas	81	49	108	0.354	109	340
Gabriel Ynoa	61	64	95	0.324	110	340
Matthew Boyd	123	79	101	0.348	85	347
Mike Clevinger	138	89	89	0.306	92	351
Kyle Gibson	95	99	103	0.341	121	353
Chris Paddack	111	60	111	0.337	98	354
Tyler Mahle	107	82	93	0.308	99	354
Daniel Norris	92	72	99	0.315	105	359
Ross Stripling	97	73	98	0.301	107	360
Lucas Giolito	143	99	89	0.317	89	363
Zac Gallen	122	110	96	0.341	97	363
Kevin Gausman	119	78	109	0.357	90	374
Tommy Milone	92	53	104	0.363	84	376
Mike Leake	67	38	108	0.34	110	379
Domingo German	113	77	109	0.352	90	379
Jack Flaherty	128	86	99	0.318	92	380
John Means	88	65	77	0.328	79	382
Marco Gonzales	81	65	97	0.335	95	383
David Price	123	82	98	0.3	97	389
Rick Porcello	83	67	90	0.32	89	395
Sonny Gray	126	114	98	0.296	117	399
Jalen Beeks	92	95	99	0.324	107	399
Joey Lucchesi	98	94	95	0.296	107	405
Josh Tomlin	77	35	99	0.346	81	410
Cole Hamels	99	105	95	0.305	108	411
Matt Andriese	111	100	102	0.301	113	411
Wade LeBlanc	73	72	91	0.321	93	413
Aaron Civale	93	68	105	0.316	101	413
Gio Gonzalez	93	124	84	0.32	102	417
Cal Quantrill	89	72	107	0.334	101	420
Anibal Sanchez	79	91	85	0.336	89	421
Sandy Alcantara	81	110	90	0.333	104	422
Martin Perez	79	110	92	0.331	108	422
Trevor Williams	78	83	88	0.33	90	425
James Paxton	129	100	105	0.341	89	425
Jose Urena	70	94	105	0.351	114	426
Lance Lynn	120	80	102	0.303	92	429
Dinelson Lamet	146	98	100	0.319	84	432
CC Sabathia	101	98	100	0.331	94	432
Julio Urias	101	93	103	0.35	84	434
Mike Minor	104	93	99	0.315	93	435
Nathan Eovaldi	106	98	107	0.307	109	447
Kyle Freeland	69	91	103	0.331	112	451
Chris Bassitt	98	85	99	0.292	100	453
Madison Bumgarner	97	62	118	0.344	81	454
Steven Matz	98	86	100	0.291	103	454
Jordan Zimmermann	73	60	113	0.338	100	455
Trevor Bauer	129	97	102	0.313	86	459
Jose Quintana	90	72	102	0.293	102	461
Wade Miley	85	104	95	0.294	117	462
Felix Pena	109	94	107	0.303	104	462
J.A. Happ	91	85	102	0.318	96	465
Adam Plutko	71	66	97	0.336	70	465
Matt Strahm	100	53	117	0.318	87	465
Homer Bailey	94	90	110	0.32	104	466
Zach Plesac	93	79	99	0.299	93	466
Andrew Heaney	119	82	119	0.333	85	468
Brett Anderson	56	73	108	0.304	130	475
Aaron Brooks	75	83	97	0.3	103	482
Alex Young	85	84	115	0.338	101	485
Jon Lester	86	77	103	0.297	102	491
Wilmer Font	109	100	104	0.326	85	497
Drew Pomeranz	135	118	96	0.283	92	498
Anthony DeSclafani	97	87	107	0.307	97	501
Yusei Kikuchi	78	89	98	0.28	108	503
Elieser Hernandez	111	78	108	0.312	78	504
Brad Keller	74	110	98	0.3	120	505
Chase Anderson	94	93	100	0.319	82	507
Jake Arrieta	78	98	99	0.277	119	510
Framber Valdez	101	113	107	0.278	144	511
Spencer Turnbull	96	113	107	0.298	115	516
Jake Odorizzi	116	92	110	0.32	83	516
Dylan Cease	94	136	93	0.284	102	517
Caleb Smith	112	118	99	0.323	61	522
Freddy Peralta	137	111	103	0.316	75	522
Jorge Lopez	83	87	104	0.279	111	525
Zach Davies	75	84	96	0.297	93	527
Michael Wacha	84	100	104	0.312	104	527
Steven Brault	87	125	96	0.298	105	531
Jakob Junis	91	85	112	0.304	101	534
Trent Thornton	96	106	96	0.314	76	534
Jon Gray	91	95	110	0.298	108	536
Adam Wainwright	88	90	105	0.277	109	537
Andrew Cashner	75	108	99	0.289	115	537
Chris Stratton	98	111	103	0.305	97	537
Merrill Kelly	89	80	114	0.308	98	540
Luke Weaver	107	72	117	0.292	85	540
Erick Fedde	53	112	94	0.273	121	544
Jordan Lyles	91	104	102	0.308	93	545
Asher Wojciechowski	92	94	99	0.311	71	546
Danny Duffy	94	99	96	0.295	82	551
Chris Archer	117	122	105	0.318	84	551
Griffin Canning	107	98	109	0.307	88	553
Antonio Senzatela	57	97	103	0.266	122	562
Adrian Sampson	79	75	127	0.314	95	564
Junior Guerra	94	130	102	0.282	104	565
Dakota Hudson	79	128	103	0.282	131	571
Trevor Richards	91	106	108	0.345	80	575
Ariel Jurado	65	76	122	0.291	107	580
Mike Fiers	71	79	101	0.286	91	581
Vince Velasquez	113	102	116	0.312	82	582
Reynaldo Lopez	91	100	98	0.284	83	596
Tanner Roark	91	90	102	0.279	84	597
Jeff Samardzija	77	75	105	0.302	80	599
Taylor Clarke	84	104	108	0.315	94	603
Nick Pivetta	93	106	108	0.299	95	604
Tyler Beede	93	103	122	0.291	101	615
Shaun Anderson	77	116	102	0.307	94	616
Aaron Sanchez	84	133	105	0.276	111	620
Jason Vargas	82	113	103	0.308	89	623
Zack Godley	77	117	107	0.314	99	625
Mike Foltynewicz	92	94	106	0.283	85	625
Robbie Ray	131	147	116	0.305	78	630
Jaime Barria	90	84	105	0.277	81	631
Eric Lauer	91	97	109	0.284	88	645
Julio Teheran	87	127	101	0.293	89	650
Trevor Cahill	87	109	114	0.272	104	655
Derek Holland	98	124	125	0.296	91	667
Glenn Sparkman	58	78	111	0.28	88	670
Drew Smyly	112	119	120	0.282	80	689
Dereck Rodriguez	68	98	114	0.268	96	707
Jhoulys Chacin	91	115	120	0.255	84	746

Aggregate Rank takes the pitchers ranking for each individual category, and then adds it together. For example, Strasburg ranks 25th in K%+, 53rd in BB%+, 4th in Hard-Hit%+, 3rd in O-Swing% and 19th in GB%+. Adding up the ranks (25+53+4+3+19) equals 104.

Crude? Yes. But hopefully good enough to compare pitchers across all areas.

Interesting Player Groupings

I am calling these “interesting” because I’m not saying anything definitive with this information. I’m at the nascent stages of collecting information, which I will eventually use to develop my own player rankings. In fact, I have only just started even looking at ADP (i.e., what the collective currently thinks). On that note, all ADP listed here are from NFBC for December 1st – January 8th, 9th, or 10th.

Player	Draft ADP	Position Rank	Five Point Aggregate Rank
Trevor Bauer	14th	4th	98th
Yu Darvish	17th	5th	9th
Lucas Giolito	19th	6th	60th
Walker Buehler	20th	7th	40th
Aaron Nola/td>	21st	8th	44th

Bauer pops out as someone to look into more before pulling the trigger on a late 1st / early 2nd round pitcher.

Player	Draft ADP	Position Rank	Five Point Aggregate Rank
Kenta Maeda	45th	15th	7th
Tyler Glasnow	49th	16th	37th
Blake Snell	50th	17th	30th
Zach Plesac	51st	18th	105th
Corbin Burnes	56th	19th	46th

Maeda pops out as someone to strongly consider at his current ADP. Plesac…not so much.

Player	Draft ADP	Position Rank	Five Point Aggregate Rank
Dinelson Lamet	66th	26th	88th
Stephen Strasburg	71stth	27th	1st
Hyun-Jin Ryu	77th	28th	2nd
Framber Valdez	78tu	29th	120th
Kyle Hendricks	84th	30th	22nd
Jose Berrios	85th	31st	31st
Zack Wheeler	90th	32nd	8th
Dylan Bundy	91st	33rd	29th

Strasburg and Ryu came out on top in this aggregate ranking approach. Think I have made this clear: by no means is this to say they should selected in the 1st round, or even much higher than their current slot. I’ve not done enough to make any such statements.

However, if I were just going based purely off ADP to make my selections, this would give me reasons to lean towards those two instead of Lamet or Valdez who now have some questions marks for me to address when I do my future research. Valdez, especially, is someone to ponder over given his excellent performance in the shortened 2020 season. Justin Mason’s November ADP report highlighted Valdez as someone who was moving up rankings. Since then, Valdez has even gained more ground: he has moved up from 83rd ADP (33rd pitcher overall) to 78th ADP (30th pitcher overall).

Player	Draft ADP	Position Rank	Five Point Aggregate Rank
Julio Urias	113th	43rd	90th
Charlie Morton	117th	45th	6th
Zack Greinke	119th	46th	17th
Sandy Alcantara	126th	50th	82nd
Joe Musgrove	128th	51st	13th

Urias and Greinke pop out here as being dissimilar compared to the other three.

Player	Draft ADP	Position Rank	Five Point Aggregate Rank
Nathan Eovaldi	231st	87th	92nd
Zach Davies	232nd	88th	127th
Eduardo Rodriguez	236th	90th	19th
Marcus Stroman	238th	91st	49th

Davies is someone I already had on my list to research (seemed to overachieve last year, going to a worse team). Eovaldi is someone I personally like more than I should, so this is just extra honey for the flytrap. But at his ADP, I won’t get burned this year if it goes sideways.

Player	Draft ADP	Position Rank	Five Point Aggregate Rank
James Paxton	252nd	97th	84th
Drew Pomeranz	353rd	98th	113th
Masahiro Tanaka	272nd	107th	25th
Elieser Hernandez	275th	108th	116th
Jake Odorizzi	291st	112th	121st
Domingo German	299th	116th	64th

I’m just here to renew my Tanaka fan club membership. And I’ll take whatever risks are involved with selecting him in round 18.