Ranking Pitchers Based on Specific Criteria (K%, GB%, HH%, O-Swing%, BB%)
I’m just starting some prep for the 2021 fantasy baseball season. In doing so, I began looking around the Web to see what others have written about prepping. I came across this article by Paul Ghiglieri over at FantasyPros on when to target pitchers.
For those that don’t know me, I enjoy the 50-round draft-and-hold leagues. I don’t swim with the sharks over at NFBC, but instead, I can be found drafting on Fantrax either in my home leagues ($25 entry) or the $50 leagues Fantrax runs. So, my definition of pitcher targets expands up to 750 players deep.
I appreciated the concept of the Five Points Pitcher. Nothing too earth shattering, but it attempts to identify pitcher targets based on underlying metrics that the average fantasy baseball fan may not be keying on. In other words, maybe helpful in identifying undervalued pitchers.
I encourage you to go read Paul’s work, but the five points are:
- High K/9 rates (though I tend to like K% more)
- Above Average GB%
- Low Hard-Hit %
- High O-Swing %
- Low Walk Rate (again, I prefer looking at BB%)
So, let’s look at those stats. I don’t fully know know what to do with the 2020 season. One podcast I listened this morning suggested looking at previous 162 games (or for pitchers, 32 starts). That seems wise, but to be honest, it was much easier to just pull 2019-2020. So, that is what we have here: Download Workbook (sorry for non Excel users).
Name | K%+ | BB%+ | Hard%+ | O-Swing% | GB%+ | Aggregate Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Stephen Strasburg | 126 | 77 | 79 | 0.37 | 116 | 104 |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | 101 | 47 | 85 | 0.359 | 117 | 110 |
Jacob deGrom | 144 | 66 | 83 | 0.384 | 101 | 123 |
Noah Syndergaard | 106 | 71 | 76 | 0.335 | 111 | 174 |
Chris Sale | 157 | 71 | 95 | 0.351 | 101 | 178 |
Charlie Morton | 129 | 82 | 90 | 0.336 | 111 | 187 |
Kenta Maeda | 123 | 81 | 79 | 0.366 | 100 | 192 |
Zack Wheeler | 95 | 68 | 79 | 0.346 | 108 | 195 |
Yu Darvish | 134 | 78 | 88 | 0.338 | 103 | 199 |
Brandon Woodruff | 128 | 69 | 93 | 0.329 | 107 | 209 |
Ryan Yarbrough | 88 | 46 | 80 | 0.368 | 102 | 211 |
Gerrit Cole | 166 | 68 | 96 | 0.351 | 93 | 213 |
Joe Musgrove | 103 | 71 | 94 | 0.351 | 104 | 216 |
Craig Stammen | 90 | 49 | 86 | 0.323 | 122 | 219 |
Shane Bieber | 144 | 61 | 106 | 0.356 | 106 | 220 |
Max Scherzer | 146 | 64 | 95 | 0.347 | 89 | 228 |
Zack Greinke | 101 | 42 | 96 | 0.336 | 103 | 233 |
Patrick Corbin | 113 | 89 | 97 | 0.363 | 110 | 234 |
Eduardo Rodriguez | 109 | 103 | 76 | 0.339 | 115 | 240 |
Seth Lugo | 137 | 62 | 91 | 0.301 | 104 | 243 |
Clayton Kershaw | 116 | 61 | 107 | 0.343 | 114 | 245 |
Kyle Hendricks | 88 | 44 | 86 | 0.35 | 100 | 246 |
Max Fried | 103 | 81 | 93 | 0.32 | 123 | 249 |
Liam Hendriks | 166 | 66 | 93 | 0.351 | 74 | 249 |
Masahiro Tanaka | 88 | 59 | 101 | 0.367 | 110 | 263 |
Pablo Lopez | 93 | 72 | 93 | 0.328 | 113 | 263 |
Luis Castillo | 126 | 110 | 96 | 0.336 | 129 | 270 |
Mike Soroka | 85 | 73 | 92 | 0.334 | 120 | 274 |
Dylan Bundy | 106 | 90 | 85 | 0.348 | 98 | 282 |
Blake Snell | 142 | 104 | 96 | 0.365 | 100 | 285 |
Jose Berrios | 103 | 80 | 97 | 0.359 | 99 | 290 |
Michael Pineda | 102 | 57 | 99 | 0.362 | 86 | 296 |
Carlos Carrasco | 125 | 78 | 103 | 0.349 | 100 | 297 |
Luis Cessa | 92 | 102 | 89 | 0.35 | 110 | 301 |
German Marquez | 100 | 64 | 104 | 0.321 | 114 | 305 |
Justin Verlander | 156 | 58 | 111 | 0.371 | 86 | 309 |
Tyler Glasnow | 155 | 87 | 95 | 0.299 | 106 | 315 |
Dallas Keuchel | 77 | 86 | 89 | 0.33 | 134 | 317 |
Michael Lorenzen | 105 | 104 | 84 | 0.331 | 105 | 317 |
Walker Buehler | 125 | 62 | 104 | 0.333 | 96 | 319 |
Frankie Montas | 113 | 83 | 103 | 0.335 | 106 | 320 |
Scott Barlow | 132 | 123 | 92 | 0.35 | 100 | 320 |
Zach Eflin | 90 | 76 | 93 | 0.331 | 104 | 321 |
Aaron Nola | 122 | 104 | 104 | 0.347 | 115 | 326 |
Ivan Nova | 60 | 73 | 91 | 0.333 | 111 | 327 |
Corbin Burnes | 142 | 104 | 101 | 0.336 | 106 | 328 |
Adrian Houser | 98 | 93 | 89 | 0.297 | 128 | 330 |
Yonny Chirinos | 94 | 64 | 91 | 0.307 | 100 | 330 |
Marcus Stroman | 90 | 88 | 90 | 0.311 | 126 | 334 |
Yusmeiro Petit | 97 | 44 | 90 | 0.332 | 72 | 335 |
Miles Mikolas | 81 | 49 | 108 | 0.354 | 109 | 340 |
Gabriel Ynoa | 61 | 64 | 95 | 0.324 | 110 | 340 |
Matthew Boyd | 123 | 79 | 101 | 0.348 | 85 | 347 |
Mike Clevinger | 138 | 89 | 89 | 0.306 | 92 | 351 |
Kyle Gibson | 95 | 99 | 103 | 0.341 | 121 | 353 |
Chris Paddack | 111 | 60 | 111 | 0.337 | 98 | 354 |
Tyler Mahle | 107 | 82 | 93 | 0.308 | 99 | 354 |
Daniel Norris | 92 | 72 | 99 | 0.315 | 105 | 359 |
Ross Stripling | 97 | 73 | 98 | 0.301 | 107 | 360 |
Lucas Giolito | 143 | 99 | 89 | 0.317 | 89 | 363 |
Zac Gallen | 122 | 110 | 96 | 0.341 | 97 | 363 |
Kevin Gausman | 119 | 78 | 109 | 0.357 | 90 | 374 |
Tommy Milone | 92 | 53 | 104 | 0.363 | 84 | 376 |
Mike Leake | 67 | 38 | 108 | 0.34 | 110 | 379 |
Domingo German | 113 | 77 | 109 | 0.352 | 90 | 379 |
Jack Flaherty | 128 | 86 | 99 | 0.318 | 92 | 380 |
John Means | 88 | 65 | 77 | 0.328 | 79 | 382 |
Marco Gonzales | 81 | 65 | 97 | 0.335 | 95 | 383 |
David Price | 123 | 82 | 98 | 0.3 | 97 | 389 |
Rick Porcello | 83 | 67 | 90 | 0.32 | 89 | 395 |
Sonny Gray | 126 | 114 | 98 | 0.296 | 117 | 399 |
Jalen Beeks | 92 | 95 | 99 | 0.324 | 107 | 399 |
Joey Lucchesi | 98 | 94 | 95 | 0.296 | 107 | 405 |
Josh Tomlin | 77 | 35 | 99 | 0.346 | 81 | 410 |
Cole Hamels | 99 | 105 | 95 | 0.305 | 108 | 411 |
Matt Andriese | 111 | 100 | 102 | 0.301 | 113 | 411 |
Wade LeBlanc | 73 | 72 | 91 | 0.321 | 93 | 413 |
Aaron Civale | 93 | 68 | 105 | 0.316 | 101 | 413 |
Gio Gonzalez | 93 | 124 | 84 | 0.32 | 102 | 417 |
Cal Quantrill | 89 | 72 | 107 | 0.334 | 101 | 420 |
Anibal Sanchez | 79 | 91 | 85 | 0.336 | 89 | 421 |
Sandy Alcantara | 81 | 110 | 90 | 0.333 | 104 | 422 |
Martin Perez | 79 | 110 | 92 | 0.331 | 108 | 422 |
Trevor Williams | 78 | 83 | 88 | 0.33 | 90 | 425 |
James Paxton | 129 | 100 | 105 | 0.341 | 89 | 425 |
Jose Urena | 70 | 94 | 105 | 0.351 | 114 | 426 |
Lance Lynn | 120 | 80 | 102 | 0.303 | 92 | 429 |
Dinelson Lamet | 146 | 98 | 100 | 0.319 | 84 | 432 |
CC Sabathia | 101 | 98 | 100 | 0.331 | 94 | 432 |
Julio Urias | 101 | 93 | 103 | 0.35 | 84 | 434 |
Mike Minor | 104 | 93 | 99 | 0.315 | 93 | 435 |
Nathan Eovaldi | 106 | 98 | 107 | 0.307 | 109 | 447 |
Kyle Freeland | 69 | 91 | 103 | 0.331 | 112 | 451 |
Chris Bassitt | 98 | 85 | 99 | 0.292 | 100 | 453 |
Madison Bumgarner | 97 | 62 | 118 | 0.344 | 81 | 454 |
Steven Matz | 98 | 86 | 100 | 0.291 | 103 | 454 |
Jordan Zimmermann | 73 | 60 | 113 | 0.338 | 100 | 455 |
Trevor Bauer | 129 | 97 | 102 | 0.313 | 86 | 459 |
Jose Quintana | 90 | 72 | 102 | 0.293 | 102 | 461 |
Wade Miley | 85 | 104 | 95 | 0.294 | 117 | 462 |
Felix Pena | 109 | 94 | 107 | 0.303 | 104 | 462 |
J.A. Happ | 91 | 85 | 102 | 0.318 | 96 | 465 |
Adam Plutko | 71 | 66 | 97 | 0.336 | 70 | 465 |
Matt Strahm | 100 | 53 | 117 | 0.318 | 87 | 465 |
Homer Bailey | 94 | 90 | 110 | 0.32 | 104 | 466 |
Zach Plesac | 93 | 79 | 99 | 0.299 | 93 | 466 |
Andrew Heaney | 119 | 82 | 119 | 0.333 | 85 | 468 |
Brett Anderson | 56 | 73 | 108 | 0.304 | 130 | 475 |
Aaron Brooks | 75 | 83 | 97 | 0.3 | 103 | 482 |
Alex Young | 85 | 84 | 115 | 0.338 | 101 | 485 |
Jon Lester | 86 | 77 | 103 | 0.297 | 102 | 491 |
Wilmer Font | 109 | 100 | 104 | 0.326 | 85 | 497 |
Drew Pomeranz | 135 | 118 | 96 | 0.283 | 92 | 498 |
Anthony DeSclafani | 97 | 87 | 107 | 0.307 | 97 | 501 |
Yusei Kikuchi | 78 | 89 | 98 | 0.28 | 108 | 503 |
Elieser Hernandez | 111 | 78 | 108 | 0.312 | 78 | 504 |
Brad Keller | 74 | 110 | 98 | 0.3 | 120 | 505 |
Chase Anderson | 94 | 93 | 100 | 0.319 | 82 | 507 |
Jake Arrieta | 78 | 98 | 99 | 0.277 | 119 | 510 |
Framber Valdez | 101 | 113 | 107 | 0.278 | 144 | 511 |
Spencer Turnbull | 96 | 113 | 107 | 0.298 | 115 | 516 |
Jake Odorizzi | 116 | 92 | 110 | 0.32 | 83 | 516 |
Dylan Cease | 94 | 136 | 93 | 0.284 | 102 | 517 |
Caleb Smith | 112 | 118 | 99 | 0.323 | 61 | 522 |
Freddy Peralta | 137 | 111 | 103 | 0.316 | 75 | 522 |
Jorge Lopez | 83 | 87 | 104 | 0.279 | 111 | 525 |
Zach Davies | 75 | 84 | 96 | 0.297 | 93 | 527 |
Michael Wacha | 84 | 100 | 104 | 0.312 | 104 | 527 |
Steven Brault | 87 | 125 | 96 | 0.298 | 105 | 531 |
Jakob Junis | 91 | 85 | 112 | 0.304 | 101 | 534 |
Trent Thornton | 96 | 106 | 96 | 0.314 | 76 | 534 |
Jon Gray | 91 | 95 | 110 | 0.298 | 108 | 536 |
Adam Wainwright | 88 | 90 | 105 | 0.277 | 109 | 537 |
Andrew Cashner | 75 | 108 | 99 | 0.289 | 115 | 537 |
Chris Stratton | 98 | 111 | 103 | 0.305 | 97 | 537 |
Merrill Kelly | 89 | 80 | 114 | 0.308 | 98 | 540 |
Luke Weaver | 107 | 72 | 117 | 0.292 | 85 | 540 |
Erick Fedde | 53 | 112 | 94 | 0.273 | 121 | 544 |
Jordan Lyles | 91 | 104 | 102 | 0.308 | 93 | 545 |
Asher Wojciechowski | 92 | 94 | 99 | 0.311 | 71 | 546 |
Danny Duffy | 94 | 99 | 96 | 0.295 | 82 | 551 |
Chris Archer | 117 | 122 | 105 | 0.318 | 84 | 551 |
Griffin Canning | 107 | 98 | 109 | 0.307 | 88 | 553 |
Antonio Senzatela | 57 | 97 | 103 | 0.266 | 122 | 562 |
Adrian Sampson | 79 | 75 | 127 | 0.314 | 95 | 564 |
Junior Guerra | 94 | 130 | 102 | 0.282 | 104 | 565 |
Dakota Hudson | 79 | 128 | 103 | 0.282 | 131 | 571 |
Trevor Richards | 91 | 106 | 108 | 0.345 | 80 | 575 |
Ariel Jurado | 65 | 76 | 122 | 0.291 | 107 | 580 |
Mike Fiers | 71 | 79 | 101 | 0.286 | 91 | 581 |
Vince Velasquez | 113 | 102 | 116 | 0.312 | 82 | 582 |
Reynaldo Lopez | 91 | 100 | 98 | 0.284 | 83 | 596 |
Tanner Roark | 91 | 90 | 102 | 0.279 | 84 | 597 |
Jeff Samardzija | 77 | 75 | 105 | 0.302 | 80 | 599 |
Taylor Clarke | 84 | 104 | 108 | 0.315 | 94 | 603 |
Nick Pivetta | 93 | 106 | 108 | 0.299 | 95 | 604 |
Tyler Beede | 93 | 103 | 122 | 0.291 | 101 | 615 |
Shaun Anderson | 77 | 116 | 102 | 0.307 | 94 | 616 |
Aaron Sanchez | 84 | 133 | 105 | 0.276 | 111 | 620 |
Jason Vargas | 82 | 113 | 103 | 0.308 | 89 | 623 |
Zack Godley | 77 | 117 | 107 | 0.314 | 99 | 625 |
Mike Foltynewicz | 92 | 94 | 106 | 0.283 | 85 | 625 |
Robbie Ray | 131 | 147 | 116 | 0.305 | 78 | 630 |
Jaime Barria | 90 | 84 | 105 | 0.277 | 81 | 631 |
Eric Lauer | 91 | 97 | 109 | 0.284 | 88 | 645 |
Julio Teheran | 87 | 127 | 101 | 0.293 | 89 | 650 |
Trevor Cahill | 87 | 109 | 114 | 0.272 | 104 | 655 |
Derek Holland | 98 | 124 | 125 | 0.296 | 91 | 667 |
Glenn Sparkman | 58 | 78 | 111 | 0.28 | 88 | 670 |
Drew Smyly | 112 | 119 | 120 | 0.282 | 80 | 689 |
Dereck Rodriguez | 68 | 98 | 114 | 0.268 | 96 | 707 |
Jhoulys Chacin | 91 | 115 | 120 | 0.255 | 84 | 746 |
Aggregate Rank takes the pitchers ranking for each individual category, and then adds it together. For example, Strasburg ranks 25th in K%+, 53rd in BB%+, 4th in Hard-Hit%+, 3rd in O-Swing% and 19th in GB%+. Adding up the ranks (25+53+4+3+19) equals 104.
Crude? Yes. But hopefully good enough to compare pitchers across all areas.
Interesting Player Groupings
I am calling these “interesting” because I’m not saying anything definitive with this information. I’m at the nascent stages of collecting information, which I will eventually use to develop my own player rankings. In fact, I have only just started even looking at ADP (i.e., what the collective currently thinks). On that note, all ADP listed here are from NFBC for December 1st – January 8th, 9th, or 10th.
Player | Draft ADP | Position Rank | Five Point Aggregate Rank |
---|---|---|---|
Trevor Bauer | 14th | 4th | 98th |
Yu Darvish | 17th | 5th | 9th |
Lucas Giolito | 19th | 6th | 60th |
Walker Buehler | 20th | 7th | 40th |
Aaron Nola/td> | 21st | 8th | 44th |
Bauer pops out as someone to look into more before pulling the trigger on a late 1st / early 2nd round pitcher.
Player | Draft ADP | Position Rank | Five Point Aggregate Rank |
---|---|---|---|
Kenta Maeda | 45th | 15th | 7th |
Tyler Glasnow | 49th | 16th | 37th |
Blake Snell | 50th | 17th | 30th |
Zach Plesac | 51st | 18th | 105th |
Corbin Burnes | 56th | 19th | 46th |
Maeda pops out as someone to strongly consider at his current ADP. Plesac…not so much.
Player | Draft ADP | Position Rank | Five Point Aggregate Rank |
---|---|---|---|
Dinelson Lamet | 66th | 26th | 88th |
Stephen Strasburg | 71stth | 27th | 1st |
Hyun-Jin Ryu | 77th | 28th | 2nd |
Framber Valdez | 78tu | 29th | 120th |
Kyle Hendricks | 84th | 30th | 22nd |
Jose Berrios | 85th | 31st | 31st |
Zack Wheeler | 90th | 32nd | 8th |
Dylan Bundy | 91st | 33rd | 29th |
Strasburg and Ryu came out on top in this aggregate ranking approach. Think I have made this clear: by no means is this to say they should selected in the 1st round, or even much higher than their current slot. I’ve not done enough to make any such statements.
However, if I were just going based purely off ADP to make my selections, this would give me reasons to lean towards those two instead of Lamet or Valdez who now have some questions marks for me to address when I do my future research. Valdez, especially, is someone to ponder over given his excellent performance in the shortened 2020 season. Justin Mason’s November ADP report highlighted Valdez as someone who was moving up rankings. Since then, Valdez has even gained more ground: he has moved up from 83rd ADP (33rd pitcher overall) to 78th ADP (30th pitcher overall).
Player | Draft ADP | Position Rank | Five Point Aggregate Rank |
---|---|---|---|
Julio Urias | 113th | 43rd | 90th |
Charlie Morton | 117th | 45th | 6th |
Zack Greinke | 119th | 46th | 17th |
Sandy Alcantara | 126th | 50th | 82nd |
Joe Musgrove | 128th | 51st | 13th |
Urias and Greinke pop out here as being dissimilar compared to the other three.
Player | Draft ADP | Position Rank | Five Point Aggregate Rank |
---|---|---|---|
Nathan Eovaldi | 231st | 87th | 92nd |
Zach Davies | 232nd | 88th | 127th |
Eduardo Rodriguez | 236th | 90th | 19th |
Marcus Stroman | 238th | 91st | 49th |
Davies is someone I already had on my list to research (seemed to overachieve last year, going to a worse team). Eovaldi is someone I personally like more than I should, so this is just extra honey for the flytrap. But at his ADP, I won’t get burned this year if it goes sideways.
Player | Draft ADP | Position Rank | Five Point Aggregate Rank |
---|---|---|---|
James Paxton | 252nd | 97th | 84th |
Drew Pomeranz | 353rd | 98th | 113th |
Masahiro Tanaka | 272nd | 107th | 25th |
Elieser Hernandez | 275th | 108th | 116th |
Jake Odorizzi | 291st | 112th | 121st |
Domingo German | 299th | 116th | 64th |
I’m just here to renew my Tanaka fan club membership. And I’ll take whatever risks are involved with selecting him in round 18.