First Base Rankings – 2021 Top 50

I will continuously update my rankings throughout the 2021 preseason based on updates to my projections, which themselves are based on transactions, injuries, and “best shape of his life” narratives (hopefully more of the first two). And also as I have time to do some research into individual players.

January 28th Update:

I did a little more combing through than I did with my initial catcher rankings. Still, this is mostly projections based with me doing some “turning the knobs” adjustments to better fit my view on players. My “view” at the moment is mostly changing playing time (plate appearances) and adjusting projections to be more biased towards 2019 performance than 2020.

Rankings Table

For my own benefit to track how my rankings and draft ADP changes, I will be keeping a log of each update in the table.

January 28th Update – NFBC ADP Data based on drafts completed 1/1/21 – 1/27/21 (15-teams only)

Rank
Tier
Player
ADP
My Notes
1
1
Freddie Freeman
14
2
1
Cody Bellinger
16
3
2
Jose Abreu
41
1/28: Can swap with Alonso…I prioritize the average buffer Abreu provides
4
2
Pete Alonso
58
1/28: See Abreu
5
3
Luke Voit
71
6
3
DJ LeMahieu
36
1/28: DJLM is getting drafted not for his 1B eligibility
7
4
Anthony Rizzo
102
1/28: Close with Goldy; Swappable, but I’ll take the “known” this year
8
4
Paul Goldschmidt
103
1/28: Close with Rizzo (Goldy = average | Rizzo = HR, relative to each other)
9
4
Matt Olson
99
10
4
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
57
1/28: I know there is upside, but not without change in GB%
11
4
Rhys Hoskins
184
1/28: Raw projections, I rank Rhys higher than Guerrero but do like VG’s potential
12
4
Max Muncy
104
1/28: Projection – .265/23/78/92 | being drafted for other eligiblity
13
4
Mike Moustakas
129
1/28: multi-position eligibility
14
5
Alec Bohm
105
1/28: 3B eligiblity
15
5
Eric Hosmer
137
1/28: Projection – .265/23/78/92
16
5
Christian Walker
197
17
5
Josh Bell
160
1/28: Would not take much to move up rankings; Projection: .250/25/82/92
18
5
Miguel Sano
197
1/28: Ranking depends on where you want to peg his K% and AVG…upside is top 12, downside is still top 20
19
6
Yulieski Gurriel
247
1/28: putting at .283/18 HR
20
6
Rowdy Tellez
228
21
7
Ryan Mountcastle
163
22
7
Hunter Dozier
238
1/28: Ranked here due to projected 3B eligibility; push lower if that changes during spring training
23
7
Jared Walsh
190
1/28: Know others are hyping, need to figure out why
24
7
Jeimer Candelario
242
25
8
Bobby Dalbec
311
26
8
Jesus Aguilar
323
27
8
Joey Votto
333
1/28: Seems too high based on others rankings
28
8
Ryan McMahon
258
29
8
Colin Moran
404
30
8
Carlos Santana
273
31
8
Tommy La Stella
310
32
8
Nate Lowe
304
33
8
C.J. Cron
298
1/28: Dependent on job
34
8
Renato Nunez
397
1/28: Dependent on Nunez getting a job and ~450 PA
35
8
Evan White
353
36
9
Jake Cronenworth
172
1/28: I know others have higher, but I’m not seeing the path to the upside (even accounting for multi-position)
37
9
Brandon Belt
338
38
9
Garrett Cooper
347
1/28: This could be personal bias from having less-than-positive experience in prior years
39
9
Wilmer Flores
323
1/28: This feels low on Flores
40
9
Josh Fuentes
468
41
9
Ji-Man Choi
507
42
9
Michael Chavis
387
43
10
Mitch Moreland
542
1/28: I could see Moreland as a 2nd division starter and performing well enough to rank higher
44
10
Marwin Gonzalez
483
45
10
Travis Shaw
561
46
10
Asdrubal Cabrera
520
47
10
Albert Pujols
657
48
10
Danny Santana
586
49
10
Andrew Vaughn
299
1/28: Have hard time putting him higher for 2021 given unknowns (call up, playing time, performance)
50
10
Pavin Smith
567
1/28: Wanted to get him on the top 50 just to have on radar

Articles to review:

Article Title Website Author Publish Date
Fantrax Consensus Rankings: First Base Fantrax Fantrax Staff 1/25/21