Value of the Late NFBC Rounds

During my current psuedo-NFBC draft (same rules: no transactions; 15 teams with 50 players, but much lower buy-in), someone offhandedly joked about the players that will be available in the late rounds. This prompted my curiosity to take a look at my NFBC league last year (again, much lower buy-in which may or may not lead to more quality players than would have been available in actual NFBC events).

An example roster of undrafted players:


C Curt Casali
C Cameron Rupp
1B Justin Bour
2B Matt Duffy
3B Kelly Johnson
SS Cesar Hernandez
CI Andres Blanco
MI Ketel Marte
OF Eddie Rosario
OF Chris Colabello
OF Odubel Herrera
OF Franklin Gutierrez
OF Joey Butler
UT Adonis Garcia
P Chris Heston
P Roberto Osuna
P Carson Smith
P Shawn Tolleson
P Robbie Ray
P Cody Anderson
P Lance McCullers
P Eduardo Rodriguez
P Taylor Jungmann

That’s a respectable, albeit non-winning, team. Just on offense, it has:

Batting Average: .278
Runs: 563
RBIs: 567
Home Runs: 153
Stolen Bases: 75

Clearly, lots of production (if we had a pre-season crystal ball) is available at the tail-end of drafts.

# of undrafted players >= 40 runs: 11 (Matt Duffy = 77)
# of undrafted players >= 40 RBIs: 9 (Matt Duffy = 77)
# of undrafted players >= 12 HRs: 9 (Justin Bour = 23)
# of undrafted players >= 8 SBs: 7 (Cesar Hernandez = 19)

Total undrafted runs: 1637 (drafted = 15806; 9.4% undrafted)
Total undrafted RBIs: 1354 (drafted = 14716; 8.4% undrafted)
Total undrafted HRs: 265 (drafted = 3761; 6.6% undrafted)
Total undrafted SBs: 266 (drafted = 2237; 10.6% undrafted)

One league makes for a poor sample size but power was much scarcer than other categories at the end of the draft.

Non-obvious draft candidates (e.g., middle relievers) capture many wins and strikeouts — making a similar comparison with pitchers have less merit. Saves, though, are interesting to review:

Tolleson and Osuna were both left available but captured a significant number of their team’s saves. Other plays (e.g., Carson Smith and Arodys Vizcaino) capture a non-negligible number of saves as well.

# of saves undrafted: 168 (drafted = 1124; 13% undrafted)

I’m not sure the correct path to determine that Osuna and Tolleson were the right late-round saves flyers (I, myself, struck out with Qualls, Frieri, Diaz, and others); but, it could be one of the secrets to a successful NFBC draft.

At least one of you fools should have drafted me!

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  1. NFBC-lite Draft Leftover Team | Fake Baseball GM

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